Why Trump Achieved a Major Step in the Middle East Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Over Ukraine

Accounts of an upcoming US-Russia leadership meeting have been overstated, it seems.

Just days after Donald Trump said he intended to meet Russia's leader Putin in Budapest - "in approximately a fortnight" - the summit has been put off without a new date.

A initial get-together by the two nations' leading diplomats has been called off, too.

"I prefer not to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump told the press at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."

• Trump says he wished to avoid a 'wasted meeting' after plan for negotiations with Putin shelved
• Disappointment in Kyiv as President Zelensky departs Washington without results

The on-again, off-again meeting is another development in the president's efforts to mediate an conclusion to war in the Eastern European nation – a topic of increased attention for the American leader after he arranged a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.

While making remarks in the North African country recently to celebrate that truce deal, Trump turned to Steve Witkoff, with a fresh directive.

"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.

However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been raging for nearing four years.

Less Leverage

Per Witkoff, the crucial element to unlocking a deal was the Israeli government's decision to strike Hamas negotiators in Qatar. It was a move that angered America's Arab allies but gave the president bargaining power to compel Israel's leader Netanyahu into making a deal.

The US president benefited from a long record of supporting the Israeli state dating back to his initial presidency, including his choice to relocate the US embassy to Jerusalem, to alter US policy on the legality of Israeli settlements in the West Bank and, in recent times, his backing for Israel's military campaign against Iran.

The US president, actually, is better regarded among Israelis than Netanyahu – a situation that gave him unique influence over the Israeli leader.

Combine the president's political and economic ties to key Arab players in the region, and he had a wealth of diplomatic muscle to force an agreement.

In the Ukraine war, on the other hand, Trump has significantly reduced influence. Over the past nine months, he has vacillated between attempts to pressure the Russian president and then Zelensky, all with minimal visible progress.

The US leader has warned to impose additional penalties on Russian energy exports and to supply the Ukrainian forces with new long-range weapons. But he has also recognised that such actions could disrupt the world's financial stability and further escalate the conflict.

Meanwhile, the US leader has publicly berated Zelensky, temporarily cutting off intelligence-sharing with Ukraine and pausing arms shipments to the nation - then to retreat in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could disrupt the entire region.

The president loves to tout his skill to meet and hammer out deals, but his face-to-face meetings with both Putin and Zelensky have not appeared to move the hostilities any nearer a peaceful end.

The Russian president may in fact be exploiting the US leader's wish for a deal – and belief in in-person deal-making - as a method of manipulating him.

During the summer, Putin consented to a summit in Alaska at the time when it appeared likely that the president would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by Senate Republicans. That legislation was subsequently put on hold.

Recently, as news emerged that the US administration was considering seriously shipping long-range missiles and air defense systems to Ukraine, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the possible summit in Hungary.

The next day, the president hosted Zelensky at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a reportedly strained discussion.

The US leader insisted that he was not being manipulated by Putin.

"As you are aware, I've been played throughout my career by the best of them, and I emerged successfully," he said.

However the president of Ukraine subsequently commented on the sequence of events.

"Once the matter of long-range mobility became a little further away for us – for Ukraine – Russia quickly became less engaged in diplomacy," he stated.

Thus, in a short period, the president has shifted from considering the idea of providing weapons to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Putin and confidentially urging Zelensky to surrender the entire Donbas region – even land Russian forces has been unable to conquer.

He has finally settled on calling for a ceasefire along present frontlines – a proposal the Russian government has refused to accept.

On the campaign trail last year, the candidate promised that he could resolve the Ukraine war in a very short time. He has subsequently discarded that commitment, admitting that concluding the hostilities is proving harder than he expected.

It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a peace plan when both parties desires, or can afford to, cease hostilities.