Trump Voters for Mamdani and a New Progressive Alliance: The Biggest Surprises from New York’s Election

Just two days prior to the NYC race for mayor, Michael Lange issued a significant electoral prediction – not just who would win overall, but block by block. The analyst, a political analyst who grew up in the city, devoted over a decade in left-leaning activism and emerged as something of a local celebrity this year for his deep dives into municipal statistics and voter surveys.

He published his highly detailed forecast map – which correctly forecast that the progressive candidate would win although missing Andrew Cuomo’s strong performance – on his Substack, his platform. He possesses a talent for witty coinages. He highlighted, for instance, the divide between the progressive stronghold, stretching from one neighborhood to Bushwick to Astoria, where he forecasted (correctly) that the left-wing candidate would win by large leads, and the conservative-leaning zone on Manhattan’s Upper East and Upper West Sides. There, certain media outlets and financial newspapers outrank the mainstream paper” in audience and the majority of electors leaned toward the independent, campaigning as a conservative-courting independent.

Voting Day Trends and Surprises

What was your election night?

I had to do that because they were adding around 200,000 ballots into the system every few minutes! I was actually a little nervous at the beginning: Mamdani led the initial ballots by 12 points, but came two big batches of votes that came in after that and the advantage dropped from 12 to 8%. I was worried.

You know, there was a world in which yesterday turned out somewhat badly for him, where the opponent would have basically doubling his votes from the Democratic primary. But the winner gained 500,000 supporters to his primary coalition, and that’s a huge reason why he succeeded. He campaigned and massively expanded his support from the primary.

Coalition Building

Where did Mamdani get those extra votes from?

He assembled the coalition that progressives always wanted to build: diverse racially, youthful, tenants and it’s people squeezed by affordability. He improved significantly with minority communities, everyday New Yorkers, relative to the earlier election. Plus he further maximized his base of liberal progressives, youthful radicals, and Muslims and south Asians. Victory required without making those significant inroads.

He created the alliance that progressives always wanted to build: diverse, youthful, tenants and people squeezed by affordability

There were also some Trump/Mamdani voters – is that a big trend?

It is a real thing, confined to Hispanic laborers, Asian communities and Muslims. Voters in ethnic enclaves that supported the former president last year backed Zohran this year. However I wouldn’t say he was winning over white working-class voters and Maga voters.

Voter Participation and Effects

One of the big stories of the night was the sky-high turnout. Who benefited?

Each candidate. Participation was significantly higher than anticipated. I thought it could go over 2 million, but it reached 2.3M – which is a huge number of participants. Existed a substantial opposition group, energized, but the Mamdani base was equally driven, and that was enough to secure victory.

You forecasted he’d exceed 50% of the vote. Is he likely for that?

Right now you would say he’s likely to surpass 50%. He’s at 50.4% but remain around 200,000 votes uncounted at that time. So it’s not certain, but I think probable, and I hope he does so then none can claim Sliwa was a disruptor.

GOP Decline

The GOP candidate, the conservative contender, is the other big story. His vote completely collapsed.

He lost any district in any area. Not even Tottenville in Staten Island, which is like an highly conservative area. That really surprised me. The independent kept Caucasian districts, affluent zones and very religiously Jewish areas, and plus gained many conservatives on Staten Island with a strong turnout. I think there was a lot of strategic balloting by the Republicans. This happened before Trump tweeted his support for Cuomo, but it assisted. It could have even turned the tide unless the winning alliance failed to expand.

Progressive Strongholds

What about your much mentioned left-wing base – did backing for the candidate dominant in those parts of Brooklyn and Queens?

I think there was some weakening of the progressive zone in certain places like Astoria or Greenpoint that have older Caucasian residents. There, instance, the Greek landlords and homeowners supported Cuomo. Thus there existed some opposition. But no, mostly the commie corridor is a key factor why Zohran won – he was polling between high percentages in Fort Greene, Clinton Hill and Bushwick.

Community Support

In the lead-up to the election we reported on whether the candidate was making inroads with Jewish New Yorkers. Is there any suggestion that he succeeded?

Exist neighborhoods with many secular and more progressive-leaning Jews – like specific locales – where he performed strongly. However in the wealthy Jewish communities such as the Manhattan area, his position on Israel was influential there. Likewise in the moderate communities including Forest Hills, Rego Park, or Bronx areas – they favored the independent. And also, there are newcomers from Eastern Europe in the borough, they were strongly supportive. So it’s unclear if there were major surprises on this one, but Mamdani did hold more progressive Jewish neighborhoods and including sections of the Upper West Side with large leads.

Political Impact

Did Mamdani redefine what the city means politically? Will the progressive base serve as a springboard for leftwing candidates?

Absolutely, it’s not accidental that key political leaders from the left come from a handful of neighborhoods in the boroughs. I’m sure that we’ll see more of that – candidates will come from these areas to be elevated nationally.

But I believe that every city in the US could develop similar progressive hubs. Urban places are the epicenters of leftwing power in the nation – because youth reside there, tenancy is common and they are places where individuals struggle by the inequalities we face.